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There are plenty of players that make for high-risk, high-reward picks in this year’s fantasy drafts. Whether they’re coming off an injury or coming off a suspension, a lot of guys will give owners plenty to think about it. In this year’s edition of “Draft or Pass” I’ll look at 10 guys who come with a few question marks. Average Draft Pick (ADP) data comes from ESPN as of September 10.
LeVeon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh, 15.5 ADP
Pros: He’s an elite back in an elite system. His replacement, 32-year-old DeAngelo Williams, put up Pro Bowl numbers filling in for Bell last season while he was suspended and injured. Bell was the consensus No. 1 overall pick in 2015, despite having a two-game suspension to start the season and is poised to return to form coming off a three-game suspension this year.
Cons: He’s out for the first three games and owners will have to waste a 6/7th round pick on DeAngelo Williams for the first three games to keep their lineup solid. He’s also coming off a torn MCL.
Verdict: Draft. In leagues I’m in, Bell usually goes before his ADP, and I think he’s absolutely worth taking around the eighth pick. He’s only 24 years old and should have a chip on his shoulder after last season. He might be the most talented back in the league and he’s going to prove why.
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle, 42.6 ADP
Pros: Rawls tore it up in a few games last season, with four games of over 100 yards rushing including one 200-yard performance. He’s the heir apparent to Marshawn Lynch in Seattle and those games proved he’s capable.
Cons: He’s also coming off of an injury and outside of those four games, Rawls wasn’t great. His sample size is minuscule and the fact that he might be a flash in the pan isn’t out of the picture. Seattle’s backfield is clouded with question marks as to who’s going to get touches. and even if he does indeed play Week 1, it will be his first action since December.
Verdict: Pass. Unless you’re desperate for a back to have a breakout season, there’s just safer options than Rawls around the 40th pick.
Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco, 35.8 ADP
Pros: Hyde returns as the No. 1 option in San Francisco’s backfield and is a lock to get plenty of touches. Now playing in a Chip Kelly system, which gave LeSean McCoy the best season of his career.
Cons: Now playing in a Chip Kelly system, which also gave DeMarco Murray the worst year of his career. He’s coming off an injury and just suffered a concussion. Hyde literally only had two good games last season.
Verdict: Draft. I know, all the cons are piling up, but I think that assuming Hyde goes through the concussion protocol without a hiccup, he’s a solid pick that will see lots of opportunities. The concussion is likely to drop his ADP, so owners will be able to grab Hyde with a decent pick.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina, 48.7 ADP
Pros: Benjamin was Cam Newton’s favorite target his rookie season. After missing an entire season due to injury, Benjamin is still likely going to emerge as Newton’s favorite target once again. He’s got the talent to make it happen.
Cons: He missed an entire season due to injury, and with Devin Funchess emerging in the preseason, he may not see the amount of targets he’s expected to see.
Verdict: Draft. Newton won an MVP throwing to Greg Olsen and a box of scraps last season. Assuming Benjamin is healthy, Newton is going to love having him back in the lineup, which bodes well for both Benjamin owners and Newton owners.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee, 52.0 ADP
Pros: He led the league in rushing two years ago and a new system may help him return to his All-Pro form.
Cons: Maybe it wasn’t all Chip Kelly’s fault, and maybe he was just a result of the Cowboys offensive line? He’s got a rookie running back coming off a Heisman winning season breathing down his neck for an opportunity.
Verdict: Pass. I’m actually a believer in Murray and I think he’ll look a lot better than last year. But Derrick Henry is what really concerns me when drafting Murray. I just find it hard to believe that they aren’t at the very least splitting carries by the end of the year, and I think it’s more likely that Henry takes the starting job.
Tom Brady, QB, New England, 62.7 ADP
Pros: He’s Tom Brady.
Cons: He’s missing the first four games due to a suspension and has a high ADP for a quarterback in that position.
Verdict: Pass. I think quarterbacks go way to high to begin with and the only one I think is worth the ADP is Cam Newton. There are just plenty of talented guys you can take at this ADP and there’s plenty of decent, unsuspended quarterbacks you can take later in the draft.
Arian Foster, RB, Miami, 77.0 ADP
Pros: He’s still one of the better running backs in the league when he’s healthy. The fact that Jay Ajayi is the guy he’s competing for carries with is more of a pro than a con.
Cons: Can he stay healthy for a full season? He isn’t getting any younger.
Verdict: Draft. Jay Ajayi has proven time and time again that he’s not good, and if Foster remains healthy, he’s surely going to be the lead back in the offense. Pick 66 isn’t a bad spot to take a guy like Foster, and there’s a solid chance he drops farther than that in many leagues. I’m a firm believer in Foster, and I think his career injury history is a bit overblown, although last season is a big red flag.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati, 97.2 ADP
Pros: He was the sixth best tight end in fantasy last season despite missing three games. When he’s on the field this year, he’ll produce. I’d rank him as the fourth overall tight end if healthy.
Cons: He’s out 4-6 weeks with an injury.
Verdict: Pass. Nothing against Eifert, but I think tight end is deeper than usual this year and you should be able to grab somebody who’s healthy without reaching for him. But if every owner in your league has this mentality, taking Eifert below his ADP would not be a bad idea as he’ll certainly have value when he returns.
Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland, 101.7 ADP
Pros: Gordon looked phenomenal in his preseason debut. He’s easily the most talented skill player in Cleveland and has a history with new quarterback Robert Griffin III. Gordon will have a massive chip on his shoulder and was First-Team All-Pro the last time he played a full season.
Cons: 2013 was a long time ago. Gordon has played in just five games over the last two seasons. He still has to serve a four-game suspension to start the year. If you really want Gordon, you should probably draft him in the late 60’s/early 70’s rather than late 90’s especially given the bump he’ll receive after this preseason game.
Verdict: DRAFT, DRAFT, DRAFT, DRAFT, DRAFT and I can’t stress this one enough. Gordon would just get one lowercase draft before his preseason debut, but now he get’s five all caps DRAFTS. The four-game suspension won’t help owners who reach to take him, but Gordon’s talent will make up for it. Owners who go running back heavy early on should absolutely take a chance on Gordon around the sixth or seventh round. At the very least, I think he’s going to be a WR2 this year, and may even emerge as a mid level WR1. Flash is back.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle, 112.4 ADP
Pros: Based on talent alone, he’s still a top five tight end in the NFL, at the very least.
Cons: Graham is coming off a year where he was criminally misused before a season-ending injury. He is still recovering and may miss the opener. What makes anyone think that he’ll be used well enough to produce in 2016?
Verdict: Draft. I really don’t feel great about Jimmy Graham this season, but with an ADP that low, what do you have to do? I wouldn’t endorse the strategy of waiting to pick a tight end until Graham. But if you either need a backup or the chips fell the wrong way and you wound up without a tight end, Graham has more upside than any of the other tight ends around this selection.
Steve Rebeiro is a staff writer for Rams Talk and a recent graduate of Marquette University. For more of his opinions, follow him on Twitter here.
2016, arian foster, carlos hyde, demarco murray, fantasy football, fantasy football 2016, featured, jimmy graham, josh gordon, Kelvin Benjamin, leveon bell, preseason, thomas rawls, Tom Brady, tyler eifert
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There are plenty of players that make for high-risk, high-reward picks in this year’s fantasy drafts. Whether they’re coming off an injury or coming off a suspension, a lot of guys will give owners plenty to think about it. In this year’s edition of “Draft or Pass” I’ll look at 10 guys who come with a few question marks. Average Draft Pick (ADP) data comes from ESPN as of September 10.
LeVeon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh, 15.5 ADP
Pros: He’s an elite back in an elite system. His replacement, 32-year-old DeAngelo Williams, put up Pro Bowl numbers filling in for Bell last season while he was suspended and injured. Bell was the consensus No. 1 overall pick in 2015, despite having a two-game suspension to start the season and is poised to return to form coming off a three-game suspension this year.
Cons: He’s out for the first three games and owners will have to waste a 6/7th round pick on DeAngelo Williams for the first three games to keep their lineup solid. He’s also coming off a torn MCL.
Verdict: Draft. In leagues I’m in, Bell usually goes before his ADP, and I think he’s absolutely worth taking around the eighth pick. He’s only 24 years old and should have a chip on his shoulder after last season. He might be the most talented back in the league and he’s going to prove why.
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle, 42.6 ADP
Pros: Rawls tore it up in a few games last season, with four games of over 100 yards rushing including one 200-yard performance. He’s the heir apparent to Marshawn Lynch in Seattle and those games proved he’s capable.
Cons: He’s also coming off of an injury and outside of those four games, Rawls wasn’t great. His sample size is minuscule and the fact that he might be a flash in the pan isn’t out of the picture. Seattle’s backfield is clouded with question marks as to who’s going to get touches. and even if he does indeed play Week 1, it will be his first action since December.
Verdict: Pass. Unless you’re desperate for a back to have a breakout season, there’s just safer options than Rawls around the 40th pick.
Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco, 35.8 ADP
Pros: Hyde returns as the No. 1 option in San Francisco’s backfield and is a lock to get plenty of touches. Now playing in a Chip Kelly system, which gave LeSean McCoy the best season of his career.
Cons: Now playing in a Chip Kelly system, which also gave DeMarco Murray the worst year of his career. He’s coming off an injury and just suffered a concussion. Hyde literally only had two good games last season.
Verdict: Draft. I know, all the cons are piling up, but I think that assuming Hyde goes through the concussion protocol without a hiccup, he’s a solid pick that will see lots of opportunities. The concussion is likely to drop his ADP, so owners will be able to grab Hyde with a decent pick.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina, 48.7 ADP
Pros: Benjamin was Cam Newton’s favorite target his rookie season. After missing an entire season due to injury, Benjamin is still likely going to emerge as Newton’s favorite target once again. He’s got the talent to make it happen.
Cons: He missed an entire season due to injury, and with Devin Funchess emerging in the preseason, he may not see the amount of targets he’s expected to see.
Verdict: Draft. Newton won an MVP throwing to Greg Olsen and a box of scraps last season. Assuming Benjamin is healthy, Newton is going to love having him back in the lineup, which bodes well for both Benjamin owners and Newton owners.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee, 52.0 ADP
Pros: He led the league in rushing two years ago and a new system may help him return to his All-Pro form.
Cons: Maybe it wasn’t all Chip Kelly’s fault, and maybe he was just a result of the Cowboys offensive line? He’s got a rookie running back coming off a Heisman winning season breathing down his neck for an opportunity.
Verdict: Pass. I’m actually a believer in Murray and I think he’ll look a lot better than last year. But Derrick Henry is what really concerns me when drafting Murray. I just find it hard to believe that they aren’t at the very least splitting carries by the end of the year, and I think it’s more likely that Henry takes the starting job.
Tom Brady, QB, New England, 62.7 ADP
Pros: He’s Tom Brady.
Cons: He’s missing the first four games due to a suspension and has a high ADP for a quarterback in that position.
Verdict: Pass. I think quarterbacks go way to high to begin with and the only one I think is worth the ADP is Cam Newton. There are just plenty of talented guys you can take at this ADP and there’s plenty of decent, unsuspended quarterbacks you can take later in the draft.
Arian Foster, RB, Miami, 77.0 ADP
Pros: He’s still one of the better running backs in the league when he’s healthy. The fact that Jay Ajayi is the guy he’s competing for carries with is more of a pro than a con.
Cons: Can he stay healthy for a full season? He isn’t getting any younger.
Verdict: Draft. Jay Ajayi has proven time and time again that he’s not good, and if Foster remains healthy, he’s surely going to be the lead back in the offense. Pick 66 isn’t a bad spot to take a guy like Foster, and there’s a solid chance he drops farther than that in many leagues. I’m a firm believer in Foster, and I think his career injury history is a bit overblown, although last season is a big red flag.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati, 97.2 ADP
Pros: He was the sixth best tight end in fantasy last season despite missing three games. When he’s on the field this year, he’ll produce. I’d rank him as the fourth overall tight end if healthy.
Cons: He’s out 4-6 weeks with an injury.
Verdict: Pass. Nothing against Eifert, but I think tight end is deeper than usual this year and you should be able to grab somebody who’s healthy without reaching for him. But if every owner in your league has this mentality, taking Eifert below his ADP would not be a bad idea as he’ll certainly have value when he returns.
Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland, 101.7 ADP
Pros: Gordon looked phenomenal in his preseason debut. He’s easily the most talented skill player in Cleveland and has a history with new quarterback Robert Griffin III. Gordon will have a massive chip on his shoulder and was First-Team All-Pro the last time he played a full season.
Cons: 2013 was a long time ago. Gordon has played in just five games over the last two seasons. He still has to serve a four-game suspension to start the year. If you really want Gordon, you should probably draft him in the late 60’s/early 70’s rather than late 90’s especially given the bump he’ll receive after this preseason game.
Verdict: DRAFT, DRAFT, DRAFT, DRAFT, DRAFT and I can’t stress this one enough. Gordon would just get one lowercase draft before his preseason debut, but now he get’s five all caps DRAFTS. The four-game suspension won’t help owners who reach to take him, but Gordon’s talent will make up for it. Owners who go running back heavy early on should absolutely take a chance on Gordon around the sixth or seventh round. At the very least, I think he’s going to be a WR2 this year, and may even emerge as a mid level WR1. Flash is back.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle, 112.4 ADP
Pros: Based on talent alone, he’s still a top five tight end in the NFL, at the very least.
Cons: Graham is coming off a year where he was criminally misused before a season-ending injury. He is still recovering and may miss the opener. What makes anyone think that he’ll be used well enough to produce in 2016?
Verdict: Draft. I really don’t feel great about Jimmy Graham this season, but with an ADP that low, what do you have to do? I wouldn’t endorse the strategy of waiting to pick a tight end until Graham. But if you either need a backup or the chips fell the wrong way and you wound up without a tight end, Graham has more upside than any of the other tight ends around this selection.
Steve Rebeiro is a staff writer for Rams Talk and a recent graduate of Marquette University. For more of his opinions, follow him on Twitter here.
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